🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Spirits producers in the UK received a welcome lift this week as a new trade agreement with India slashed punitive tariffs on imported spirits from 150% to 75%. Scotch whisky and British gin stand to gain the most, with UK distillers anticipating an export surge into one of the world’s fastest-growing premium spirits markets.
Meanwhile, Girvan Distillery made headlines with the launch of a rare 60-year-old single grain whisky, priced at £10,000 per bottle. In an ambitious move to position Scotland at the pinnacle of aged spirits, a 100-year-old release is also in the works.
On the economic front, the UK’s whisky industry is demonstrating resilience despite broader global headwinds. With an estimated £7.6 billion in annual revenue and a projected CAGR of 3.4%, the sector continues to lean into premiumisation strategies, with collectors increasingly focused on rarity, provenance, and vintage diversity.
London also took centre stage geopolitically, hosting high-level talks between the United States and China. Held at Lancaster House, the meetings marked a tentative easing of tensions, focusing on Taiwan, artificial intelligence governance, and trade imbalances. While no major policy breakthroughs were announced, both sides committed to reopening military communication channels and collaborating on fentanyl control – a quiet but meaningful win for international diplomacy, and a reminder of London’s role as a neutral, strategic hub.
On the innovation front, London Tech Week 2025 delivered a powerful message: Britain remains serious about staking its claim in the global tech race. The event drew major figures from across the digital economy, but it was NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang who stole the show. In a widely applauded keynote, Huang described the UK as “uniquely positioned to lead in the AI age,” citing its academic legacy, regulatory foresight, and growing ecosystem of frontier-tech startups.
His speech emphasised the pivotal role of accelerated computing and sovereign AI models, urging governments to think beyond chips and towards long-term infrastructure and talent development. Huang’s presence signalled strong confidence in the UK as a partner in global AI scaling – particularly in areas like healthcare, finance, and national security.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, attending his first Tech Week as leader, took the opportunity to outline Labour’s vision for a digitally driven economy. He pledged expanded investment in R&D, support for ethical AI frameworks, and closer alignment between universities and private enterprise. His message was clear: innovation will be central to the UK’s economic renewal.
Elsewhere at the event, the UK’s AI Safety Institute deepened its ties with key industry players, including OpenAI and Microsoft, while a flurry of venture capital announcements hinted at renewed appetite for deep tech despite a cautious macro backdrop. Taken together, London Tech Week reinforced the capital’s ambition not just to participate in the next industrial revolution – but to help shape it.
🇺🇸 United States
After two rocky years, the U.S. wine market is finally showing signs of life. Data from Q1 2025 revealed an 8.6% rise in wine imports and a 3.4% increase in total wine revenues, lifting total U.S. market value to approximately $109 billion. The recovery is led by strong on-trade growth and a gradual return of millennial and Gen Z consumers to the premium segment.
However, the outlook for American whiskey is more complex. Exports continue to face challenges due to reinstated EU tariffs and slowed global demand. Domestically, volumes declined slightly (~1–2%) over the last year, prompting distillers to rethink both pricing models and international distribution.
Political tensions have added further complexity. In Los Angeles, the Trump administration deployed federal assistance following four days of civic disruption related to ICE arrests. The response has included the use of the National Guard with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, a former Fox News Host, threatening the use of the US Army.
Yesterday, during a congressional hearing, Secretary Hegseth stated that the US has “plans for any contingency” when asked about whether the US needs to be prepared “to take Greenland and Panama by force”.
The US has said it is not involved in Israel’s bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites, an escalation that is threatening to send the region deeper into conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a statement soon after the strikes began, saying Israel had taken “unilateral action” and warning Iran to not retaliate against the US. “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,” Rubio said. “Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.”
However, President Trump has just spoken on the unfolding events warning that Iran must agree to a nuclear deal “before there is nothing left,” suggesting Israel’s next attacks on the country could be “even more brutal.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Operation Rising Lion” struck Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz, nuclear scientists, and what he called “the heart of Iran’s ballistic missiles program.” Six nuclear scientists were killed, Iranian state-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported.
In this climate, American producers – especially those with significant exports – face not only shifting economic conditions, but also a complex and evolving geopolitical backdrop.
🇪🇺 Europe
The European luxury drinks market remains in flux. Earlier this year, the EU reimposed a 50% tariff on American whiskey, a decision seen as both symbolic and strategic in ongoing U.S.–EU negotiations. The result is a challenging environment for brands reliant on transatlantic flows.
In response to slower-than-expected growth across multiple product lines, Diageo announced plans to cut $500 million in costs and divest non-core assets by 2028, signalling a leaner and more agile approach for the next economic cycle.
On the wine side, several top Bordeaux houses have held back new releases following underwhelming en primeur campaigns, reflecting cautious market sentiment and growing concern over global price sensitivity – however, there are strong debates over the quality of the 2024 vintage.
🌏 Asia
Asia remains the most dynamic region for spirits growth. India, in particular, continues to dominate headlines. Irish whiskey imports into India rose 58% by volume in 2024, while vodka volumes climbed 17%. With the UK–India tariff cut taking effect, there is strong optimism that Scotch and Japanese whisky will expand their footprint across India’s increasingly affluent cities.
Elsewhere in Asia, Vinexpo Asia reaffirmed the region’s central role in the future of fine wine and spirits. Importers across Singapore, Vietnam, and Taiwan are shifting focus towards smaller, family-run producers with sustainability credentials, reflecting a nuanced evolution in Asian consumer priorities.
The week, however, was overshadowed by tragic news involving Air India flight AI169, which was en route from Ahmedabad to London Gatwick. The aircraft was forced to make an emergency landing shortly after take-off due to what was later confirmed as a serious onboard medical emergency. Despite the swift response of the crew and medical personnel on the ground, one passenger sadly passed away mid-flight. The incident has sparked renewed calls for enhanced in-flight medical protocols and underscored the challenges airlines face in managing long-haul routes under intense passenger volumes.
Air India expressed condolences to the affected family and confirmed an internal review of the event. For many, the tragedy served as a sobering reminder that amidst record growth in Asia’s aviation and tourism sectors, passenger wellbeing remains paramount.
🪙 Metals: Gold & Copper
Gold extended its rally this week, with futures climbing to an all-time high of $3,466.75/oz, driven by market jitters ahead of the June 18 Fed decision and heightened Middle East tensions. Spot prices remained strong at around $3,304/oz, reflecting continued investor demand for defensive assets.
Copper prices, meanwhile, held firm. On COMEX, copper settled in the $4.80–$4.90/lb range, while the LME 3-month price hovered near $9,765/tonne. Analysts noted increased demand from data centre construction and AI infrastructure as a key driver, with scrap copper prices up ~5% over the past week. As the green transition accelerates globally, copper’s long-term narrative remains bullish despite near-term consolidation.
🛢️ Oil
Oil markets surged this week in response to a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions. Following Israel’s targeted strike on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, fears of broader regional conflict sent prices sharply higher.
By Friday afternoon, Brent crude was trading at $74.66 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed to $73.63, marking their steepest single-week gains in over a year. Much of the movement came on the back of geopolitical risk premiums, with traders pricing in the potential for disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint responsible for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade.
While prices have now stabilised below the $75 threshold, at the time of writing, volatility remains high. Analysts note that if hostilities continue or widen, Brent could test $90–100 per barrel, with worst-case projections reaching $120–130. Conversely, if tensions de-escalate, oversupply in the second half of 2025 – due to OPEC+ production increases and steady U.S. shale output – could cap any sustained rally.
In the background, macroeconomic concerns persist. Central banks remain cautious, and traders are closely watching next week’s Fed meeting for cues on interest rates and inflation. For now, oil sits at the crossroads of geopolitics, monetary policy, and market psychology.
🔍 Final Thoughts
This week underscored just how tightly interconnected today’s markets have become – where geopolitics, technology, luxury investment, and energy can all pivot global sentiment in a matter of hours.
In the UK, major trade deals and high-level diplomacy put London at the heart of global affairs. From the US–China talks at Lancaster House to the bullish tone at London Tech Week – headlined by NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang – Britain is positioning itself as both a diplomatic and digital power, while Scotch whisky stands to gain from newly lowered Indian tariffs.
The US navigated a complex week, balancing economic signals of a wine market rebound with simmering international and domestic tensions. The Trump administration responded to civic unrest in Los Angeles and took a measured stance following Israel’s strike on Iran, seeking to contain volatility without fuelling escalation.
Europe grappled with ongoing tariff friction and strategic recalibration. Diageo’s streamlining plans and sluggish en primeur releases reflect a region adjusting to changing consumer appetites and a shifting trade landscape.
In Asia, spirits markets remain buoyant, with India leading the way. But the optimism was tempered by the tragic death of a passenger aboard an Air India flight to London, reminding us of the human side of global mobility.
Commodity markets mirrored the week’s tension. Gold soared to record highs, driven by risk aversion, while copper remained firm amid long-term infrastructure demand. Oil spiked sharply following the Israel–Iran confrontation, but its future path remains uncertain – caught between conflict and oversupply.
Ultimately, this was a week where markets moved on more than just numbers. They moved on leadership, diplomacy, tragedy, and the ever-changing pulse of global ambition. For investors, collectors, and observers alike, staying alert and adaptive remains not just prudent – but essential.
