Nearly ten years have passed since the pivotal renovations at Château Montrose, prompting a retrospective glance at the enduring appeal of this Super Second within the secondary market.
In 2023, Château Montrose secured the 8th spot among the most sought-after Bordeaux 500 labels, gauged by the number of bids received. The 2005 vintage emerged as the second most popular, trailing closely behind the 2010 vintage.
The label experienced noteworthy interest in the market last year. The 2010 vintage, with its 100-point scores from Lisa Perrotti-Brown and Antonio Galloni (although later downgraded to 99 points by Lisa Perrotti-Brown in a subsequent review for The Wine Advocate), garnered the most attention. Since its release, the wine has seen a 10.6% increase in its Market Price. Despite slightly lower scores of 98 points from both Lisa Perrotti-Brown and William Kelley, the 2005 vintage has proven to be a wise investment. Initially released at £635 per case, the wine has steadily appreciated in value, currently trading at £1,550 per 12×75. Those savvy. enough to have purchased it En Primeur have enjoyed a remarkable 140% return.
Fair Value’s Insights into the 2005 Château Montrose Vintage.
Market Prices for Château Montrose exhibit an 80% correlation with Wine Advocate scores. The current Market Price for the 2005 vintage places it slightly above the Fair Value line.
However, the vintage’s true worth becomes evident when taking into account its age and quality. Despite its position above the Fair Value line. it stands out as one of Montrose’s better-scoring (according to The Wine Advocate) and attractively priced older vintages. While the 2010 and 2009 vintages may boast marginally higher scores, the 2005 vintage comes with a 35.4% discount compared to the 2009 and an 8.4% discount compared to the 2010 vintage.
Does The 2005 Château Montrose Vintage Have Stamina?
Examining its historical price chart reveals a correction in Château Montrose 2005 since it reached its peak at £1,827 in October 2022. Despite this correction, its long-term bullish trend remains intact, supported by indicators like the ascending Simple Moving Average 50-month (SMA50) and a trendline dating back to 2010. While significantly below the current price, the trendline intersects with a crucial horizontal support level at £1,250, adding to its significance. Montrose’s current price seems to be caught between its Simple Moving Averages over 20 and 50 months, hinting at a potential exhaustion of the long-term bullish trend. However, the reassuring aspect for bullish investors is that both SMA20 and SMA50 are still on an upward trajectory.
The Bollinger Bands (BB) appear flat, with the lower BB just below the SMA50, potentially defining the lower boundary of a trading range in the upcoming months. Since October 2023, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hovered below the ’50 line.’ While in ‘bearish’ territory, it is not oversold and does not indicate an imminent acceleration of bearish momentum. However, a breach of the SMA50 may signal an acceleration of bearish momentum, with a potential price target of £1,250.
